Puzzles

Probability: The Monty Hall Paradox

<Problem taken from LOCUS Math study material>

The problem we are going to discuss is publicly one of the most well known problems in probability. This version of the problem and its solution have been taken from Wikipedia.

Suppose you are in a game show, and you’re given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a new car; behind the others, goats. The car and the goats were placed randomly behind the doors before the show. The rules of the game show are as follows: After you’ve chosen a door, the door remains closed for the time being. The game show host, Monty Hall, who knows what is behind the doors, now has to open one of the two remaining doors, and the door he opens must have a goat behind it. If both remaining doors have goats behind them, he chooses one randomly. After Monty Hall opens a door with a goat, he will ask you to decide whether you want to stay with your first choice or to switch to the last remaining door. Imagine that you choose Door 1 and the host opens Door 3, which has a goat. He then asks you “Do you want to switch to Door 2?” Is it to your advantage to change your choice?

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Figure-1

Before going through the solution, give the problem a great deal of thought. Will switching change the probability of wining? Or will it not matter because it is equally likely that the car may be behind Door 1 or Door 2 ?
O.K., now the solution. We are assuming that the player initially picked Door 1. (However, the player may initially choose any of the three doors). We’ll now calculate the probability of winning by switching, by listing out all cases explicitly.

Case 1: The car is behind Door 1. In this case, the game host Monty Hall must open one of the two remaining doors randomly

Case 2: The car is behind Door 2. Then the host must open Door 3

Case 3: The car is behind Door 3. Then the host must open Door 2

If the player chooses to switch, he’ll win only if the car is behind either of the two unchosen doors rather than the one that was originally picked.

The following diagram visually depicts the various cases and what happens with switching.

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Figure-2

Let us explain how we arrived at the various probabilities using a probability tree:

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Figure-3

Thus, switching leads to winning with probability 2/3 , that is, the player should switch for a higher probability of winning!

This result may seem very counter-intuitive to you. After all, you may say, the remaining two doors must each have a probability 1/2 of containing the car. However, this intuition is wrong.

In fact, you are not alone in this intuition . When first presented with this problem, an overwhelming majority of people assume that each door has an equal probability and conclude that switching does

not matter. Even Nobel laureates have been known to have given the wrong answer and to have insisted upon it! For more interesting facts about this problem, you’ll find a lot of resources online. Here’s a different version of the same problem call “The Prisoner’s Dilemma”

There are three condemned prisoners, a random one of whom has been secretly chosen to be pardoned. One of the prisoners begs the warden to tell him of one of the others who will be executed, arguing that this reveals no information about his own fate, but increases his chances of being pardoned from 1/3 to 1/2. The warden obliges, secretly flipping a coin to decide which name to provide if the prisoner who is asking is the one being pardoned. Does the warden’s answer change the prisoner’s chances of being pardoned?

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On a clock

The hour and minute hands of a clock are identical. How many moments are there in a day when it is not possible to tell from this clock what time it is?

You can off course do this problem analytically. But there is a very elegant solution that requires almost no usage of pen and paper. Before proceeding further, see if you can find such a solution.

First of all we note that we are not required to tell whether the time is AM or PM – that is not possible even with an ordinary clock. So we assume that we just have to tell the hour and the minute, without deciding whether its AM or PM.

Now, lets try to make more sense of the problem. What do we mean when we say we can’t tell the time? Visualize a bit. We can’t tell the time for exactly those positions of the hands, for which the positions are interchangeable. Sounds confusing?

Lets say one of the hands is exactly at 12, while the other is exactly at 6. Is there any problem in telling the time? No. We know that it is exactly 6:00, even though we can’t differentiate between the hands. What about one hand being somewhere between 4 and 5, and the other being exactly at 2? Obviously, the hand exactly at 2 cannot be the hour hand, since then the other hand should have been at 12.

So, we see that for certain positions, it can be easily determined which hand is the minute hand and which hand the hour hand. What are these positions? These are positions for which the hour and minute hands cannot take the place of each other. If one hand is at 12, and one at 6, we know that it is 6:00; there is no ambiguity, because the  hour hand could not have been at 12 with the minute hand being at 6. That is invalid. The only possibility is that the hour hand is the one at 6, while the other hand is the minute hand.

But, if you visualize carefully, there will be certain times for which the hour and minute hands will be interchangeable. If the hour hand is at position X, and the minute hand at Y, then there will come a time when the hour hand is at Y while the minute hand is at X. In such a case, we won’t be able to say whether the time is X:Y or Y:X. We have to precisely count these moments, the positions for which the hour and minute hands are interchangeable.

Having determined what we have to count, we start with the solution. Note that the minute hand moves 12 times as fast as the hour hand. If the hour hand moves from 12 to 1, the minute hand will have moved a complete circle.

Now, we add an imaginary third hand to the clock, one which moves 12 times as fast as the minute hand. Suppose now that it is 12:00, and all the three hands coincide. After some time,, let the hour hand and the third hand coincide. Call this position X, and let Y be the position of the minute hand at this instant. So it is X:Y. Note that at this instant, say T, the minute hand has traveled 12 times as far as the the hour hand, while the third hand has traveled 12 times as far as the minute hand.

Sometimes later, when the minute hand has traveled 12 times as far as it is at T, it will reach the position of the third hand, and also the hour hand, at time T, whereas, the hour hand will have traveled 12 times as far as it is at T, and it will reach the position of the minute hand. Therefore, the time at that instant is Y:X, which is ambiguous.

We see that all time instants where the hour hand and the fast hand coincide are ambiguous, so we just have to count such instants. The hour hand goes around 2 times a day, while the fast hand goes around 12 x 12 x 2 = 288 times a day. Therefore, these two hands are coincident 286 times. Out of these, there are some instants when the hour and the minute hands, and thus all three hands, coincide. There are precisely 22 such instants, because, the hour hand goes around 2 times a day, while the minute hand goes around 24 times a day. But these moments are not ambiguous, because even if the hour and the minute hands coincide, we can still tell the time.

Therefore, there are 286 – 22 = 264 such ambiguous moments.

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Cutting a carpet

You have an 8 by 8 carpet and another 6 by 1 strip of carpet.

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You are required to cut the 8 by 8 carpet into exactly two pieces, using only one cut, so that these two pieces and the 6 by 1 strip can be used to form a 10 by 7 carpet.

Solution: Before looking at the solution, give this a good good try. It is actually a very interesting problem.

The solution is as follows. This is how we cut the carpet:

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Now we translate the two parts 1 unit each in opposite directions, so that the situation looks something like this:

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Finally, we translate the part at the right 1 unit upwards, so that we have
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A 6 by 1 area forms in the middle. Now we just fit our 6 by 1 strip of carpet here, and the 10 by 7 carpet gets completed!

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